IN addition to the well-known warming of ∼0.5 C since the middle of the nineteenth century,
global-mean surface temperature records 1–4 display substantial variability on timescales …

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to cause substantial
changes in climate 1 . Recent model studies suggest that the equilibrium warming for a CO 2 …

During the past two decades there has been considerable discussion about the relative
contribution of different factors to the temperature changes observed now over the past 142 years…

Stabilizing the carbon dioxide–induced component of climate change is an energy problem.
Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the …

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established jointly by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (…

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1 calls for “stabilization of
greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous …

We develop a new climate-impact model, theGlobal Impact Model (GIM), which combines
futurescenarios, detailed spatial simulations by generalcirculation models (GCMs), sectoral …

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily
precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to …

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic
adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional …

People are often of two minds about uncertainty. On the one hand they crave predictions
about the future. Virtually every newspaper, magazine, and trade publication is filled with …