Early Mortality in a Multinational Systemic Sclerosis Inception Cohort

Arthritis Rheumatol. 2017 May;69(5):1067-1077. doi: 10.1002/art.40027. Epub 2017 Apr 6.

Abstract

Objective: To determine mortality and causes of death in a multinational inception cohort of subjects with systemic sclerosis (SSc).

Methods: We quantified mortality as standardized mortality ratio (SMR), years of life lost, and percentage mortality in the first decade of disease. The inception cohort comprised subjects recruited within 4 years of disease onset. For comparison, we used a prevalent cohort, which included all subjects irrespective of disease duration at recruitment. We determined a single primary cause of death (SSc related or non-SSc related) using a standardized case report form, and we evaluated predictors of mortality using multivariable Cox regression.

Results: In the inception cohort of 1,070 subjects, there were 140 deaths (13%) over a median follow-up of 3.0 years (interquartile range 1.0-5.1 years), with a pooled SMR of 4.06 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.39-4.85), up to 22.4 years of life lost in women and up to 26.0 years of life lost in men, and mortality in the diffuse disease subtype of 24.2% at 8 years. In the prevalent cohort of 3,218 subjects, the pooled SMR was lower at 3.39 (95% CI 3.06-3.71). In the inception cohort, 62.1% of the primary causes of death were SSc related. Malignancy, sepsis, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease were the most common non-SSc-related causes of death. Predictors of early mortality included male sex, older age at disease onset, diffuse disease subtype, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and renal crisis.

Conclusion: Early mortality in SSc is substantial, and prevalent cohorts underestimate mortality in SSc by failing to capture early deaths, particularly in men and those with diffuse disease.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Australia
  • Autoantibodies / immunology
  • Canada
  • Cause of Death
  • Cerebrovascular Disorders / mortality
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Heart Diseases / etiology
  • Heart Diseases / mortality
  • Humans
  • Hypertension, Pulmonary / etiology
  • Hypertension, Pulmonary / mortality
  • Intestinal Diseases / etiology
  • Intestinal Diseases / mortality
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Kidney Diseases / etiology
  • Kidney Diseases / mortality
  • Lung Diseases, Interstitial / etiology
  • Lung Diseases, Interstitial / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Myocardial Ischemia / mortality
  • Neoplasms / mortality
  • Prognosis
  • Scleroderma, Systemic / complications
  • Scleroderma, Systemic / immunology
  • Scleroderma, Systemic / mortality*
  • Sepsis / mortality
  • Spain

Substances

  • Autoantibodies

Grants and funding