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Implications of absolute fracture risk assessment for osteoporosis practice guidelines in the USA

  • Special Position Paper
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Abstract

Summary

Application of the WHO fracture prediction algorithm in conjunction with an updated US economic analysis indicates that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective in patients with fragility fractures or osteoporosis, in older individuals at average risk and in younger persons with additional clinical risk factors for fracture, supporting existing practice recommendations.

Introduction

The new WHO fracture prediction algorithm was combined with an updated economic analysis to evaluate existing NOF guidance for osteoporosis prevention and treatment.

Methods

The WHO fracture prediction algorithm was calibrated to the US population using national age-, sex- and race-specific death rates and age- and sex-specific hip fracture incidence rates from the largely white population of Olmsted County, MN. Fracture incidence for other races was estimated by ratios to white women and men. The WHO algorithm estimated the probability (%) of a hip fracture (or a major osteoporotic fracture) over 10 years, given specific age, gender, race and clinical profiles. The updated economic model suggested that osteoporosis treatment was cost-effective when the 10-year probability of hip fracture reached 3%.

Results

It is cost-effective to treat patients with a fragility fracture and those with osteoporosis by WHO criteria, as well as older individuals at average risk and osteopenic patients with additional risk factors. However, the estimated 10-year fracture probability was lower in men and nonwhite women compared to postmenopausal white women.

Conclusions

This analysis generally endorsed existing clinical practice recommendations, but specific treatment decisions must be individualized. An estimate of the patient’s 10-year fracture risk should facilitate shared decision-making.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank David C. Radley and Loretta H. Pearson for research assistance and Mary G. Roberts for help in preparing the manuscript.

Conflicts of interest

None.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bone Metabolism Laboratory, Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging, Tufts University, 711 Washington Street, Boston, MA, 02111, USA

    B. Dawson-Hughes

  2. Multidisciplinary Clinical Research Center in Musculoskeletal Diseases and The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Dartmouth Medical School, Lebanon, NH, USA

    A. N. A. Tosteson

  3. Division of Epidemiology, College of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA

    L. J. Melton III

  4. The Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA

    S. Baim

  5. Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA

    M. J. Favus

  6. Division of Endocrinology, College of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA

    S. Khosla

  7. Helen Hayes Hospital, Regional Bone Center, West Haverstraw, NY, USA

    R. L. Lindsay

  8. HB7505 Clinical Research, Dartmouth Medical School, One Medical Center Drive, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA

    A. N. A. Tosteson

Authors
  1. B. Dawson-Hughes
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  2. A. N. A. Tosteson
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  3. L. J. Melton III
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  4. S. Baim
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  5. M. J. Favus
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  6. S. Khosla
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  7. R. L. Lindsay
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to B. Dawson-Hughes.

Additional information

The authors comprise the National Osteoporosis Foundation Guide Committee.

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Dawson-Hughes, B., Tosteson, A.N.A., Melton, L.J. et al. Implications of absolute fracture risk assessment for osteoporosis practice guidelines in the USA. Osteoporos Int 19, 449–458 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-008-0559-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-008-0559-5

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