Table 4.

Expected probability of ranks for each therapy (95% credible interval).

Prior	Outcome	Agents		CYC	AZA	MMF	Pred	Tacrolimus
Flat	Serum creatinine	3	Rank	3 (1, 3)		2 (1, 3)		1 (1, 3)
			1	0.03		0.39		0.59
			2	0.25		0.50		0.26
			3	0.73 (0.00, 1.00)		0.12 (0.00, 1.00)		0.16 (0.00, 1.00)
Flat	Proteinuria	4	Rank	2 (1, 4)	3 (1, 4)	1 (1, 3)	3 (1, 4)
			1	0.08	0.14	0.72	0.07
			2	0.64	0.08	0.18	0.10
			3	0.16	0.29	0.09	0.47
			4	0.12 (0.00, 1.00)	0.49 (0.00, 1.00)	0.02 (0.00, 0.00)	0.36 (0.00, 1.00)
Flat	Proteinuria	5	Rank	3 (2, 5)	4 (1, 5)	2 (1, 4)	5 (2, 5)	1 (1, 3)
			1	0.01	0.06	0.26	0.01	0.67
			2	0.12	0.05	0.56	0.03	0.24
			3	0.68	0.06	0.14	0.05	0.08
			4	0.13	0.31	0.04	0.51	0.01
			5	0.06 (0.00, 1.00)	0.52 (0.00, 1.00)	0.01 (0.00, 0.00)	0.41 (0.00, 1.00)	0.00 (0.00, 0.00)
Sceptical	Serum Creatinine	3	Rank	2 (1, 3)		2 (1, 3)		1 (1, 3)
			1	0.10		0.21		0.69
			2	0.48		0.36		0.16
			3	0.42 (0.00, 1.00)		0.43 (0.00, 1.00)		0.15 (0.00, 1.00)
Sceptical	Proteinuria	5	Rank	3 (1, 5)	3 (1, 5)	4 (1, 5)	4 (1, 5)	3 (1, 5)
			1	0.15	0.29	0.13	0.17	0.26
			2	0.32	0.16	0.16	0.17	0.19
			3	0.33	0.14	0.20	0.16	0.18
			4	0.17	0.17	0.25	0.22	0.19
			5	0.03 (0.00, 1.00)	0.25 (0.00, 1.00)	0.27 (0.00, 1.00)	0.27 (0.00, 1.00)	0.18 (0.00, 1.00)

Agent in columns is ranked; rank in rows indicates the probability for a rank; rank is a comprehensive measure. Outcome: serum creatinine < 132 µmol/l; or proteinuria < 0.5 g/day. Model convergence: empirical measures for chain convergence were excellent; Gelman-Rubin statistic R = 1.00 for each node consistently. The model converged. sCr: serum creatinine; MMF: mycophenolate mofetil; Pred: prednisone alone; CYC: cyclophosphamide; Tac: tacrolimus; AZA: azathioprine.