Table 4.

Expected probability of ranks for each therapy (95% credible interval).

PriorOutcomeAgentsCYCAZAMMFPredTacrolimus
FlatSerum creatinine3Rank3 (1, 3)2 (1, 3)1 (1, 3)
10.030.390.59
20.250.500.26
30.73 (0.00, 1.00)0.12 (0.00, 1.00)0.16 (0.00, 1.00)
FlatProteinuria4Rank2 (1, 4)3 (1, 4)1 (1, 3)3 (1, 4)
10.080.140.720.07
20.640.080.180.10
30.160.290.090.47
40.12 (0.00, 1.00)0.49 (0.00, 1.00)0.02 (0.00, 0.00)0.36 (0.00, 1.00)
FlatProteinuria5Rank3 (2, 5)4 (1, 5)2 (1, 4)5 (2, 5)1 (1, 3)
10.010.060.260.010.67
20.120.050.560.030.24
30.680.060.140.050.08
40.130.310.040.510.01
50.06 (0.00, 1.00)0.52 (0.00, 1.00)0.01 (0.00, 0.00)0.41 (0.00, 1.00)0.00 (0.00, 0.00)
ScepticalSerum Creatinine3Rank2 (1, 3)2 (1, 3)1 (1, 3)
10.100.210.69
20.480.360.16
30.42 (0.00, 1.00)0.43 (0.00, 1.00)0.15 (0.00, 1.00)
ScepticalProteinuria5Rank3 (1, 5)3 (1, 5)4 (1, 5)4 (1, 5)3 (1, 5)
10.150.290.130.170.26
20.320.160.160.170.19
30.330.140.200.160.18
40.170.170.250.220.19
50.03 (0.00, 1.00)0.25 (0.00, 1.00)0.27 (0.00, 1.00)0.27 (0.00, 1.00)0.18 (0.00, 1.00)
  • Agent in columns is ranked; rank in rows indicates the probability for a rank; rank is a comprehensive measure. Outcome: serum creatinine < 132 ยตmol/l; or proteinuria < 0.5 g/day. Model convergence: empirical measures for chain convergence were excellent; Gelman-Rubin statistic R = 1.00 for each node consistently. The model converged. sCr: serum creatinine; MMF: mycophenolate mofetil; Pred: prednisone alone; CYC: cyclophosphamide; Tac: tacrolimus; AZA: azathioprine.