Cutpoints and accuracy for nonresponders and responders in the derivation and validation cohorts in TEAR using best prediction model (Model C). The derivation cohort was composed of patients taking methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy for 24 weeks who added either etanercept, or SSZ + HCQ because they had moderate or high disease activity at Week 24. The outcome (low disease activity) was assessed 48 weeks later (Week 72 of the TEAR trial). The validation cohort was composed of patients who initiated MTX + etanercept, or triple therapy (MTX + SSZ + HCQ) at the beginning of the TEAR trial. The outcome (low disease activity) was assessed 48 weeks later (Week 48 of the TEAR trial).
| Derivation Cohort, n = 186 | Validation Cohort, n = 127 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutpoint (0–1 scale) | Accuracy, % | % of Population | Accuracy, % | % of Population |
| Predicted nonresponders | ||||
| < 0.1 | 95 | 10 | 95 | 15 |
| < 0.2 | 93 | 23 | 84 | 34 |
| < 0.3 | 86 | 34 | 79 | 46 |
| < 0.4 | 77 | 45 | 73 | 57 |
| Predicted responders | ||||
| > 0.6 | 79 | 34 | 71 | 24 |
| > 0.7 | 87 | 25 | 84 | 15 |
| > 0.8 | 96 | 12 | 100 | 7 |
SSZ: sulfasalazine; HCQ: hydroxychloroquine.