Table 4

Lung function worsening and mortality, expressed as hazard ratio (HR), in relation to baseline findings in the validation set (univariate analysis).

	Time to FVC 10% Decline		Time to DLCO 15% Decline		Mortality
	HR (95% CI)	p	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	p
IL-6	1.34 (1.12–1.6)	0.001	1.14 (0.96–1.36)	0.13	1.32 (1.08–1.62)	0.007
Sex	1.19 (0.74–1.96)	0.46	1.59 (1.02–2.49)	0.04	1.36 (0.77–2.41)	0.3
Age	1.01 (0.99–1.02)	0.48	1.02 (1.00–1.04)	0.02	1.03 (1.00–1.05)	0.004
Smoking	1.06 (0.77–1.46)	0.66	1.32 (0.98–1.8)	0.07	1.14 (0.77–1.68)	0.5
dcSSc	1.59 (1.03–2.43)	0.04	1.70 (1.11–2.59)	0.01	1.26 (0.74–2.13)	0.4
PH	2.43 (1.33–4.44)	0.004	2.1 (1.13–3.9)	0.02	3.85 (2.11–7.03)	< 0.0001
DTPA	0.98 (0.97–0.99)	0.004	0.99 (0.97–1.00)	0.03	0.98 (0.96–1.00)	0.06
FEV1, %	0.98 (0.97–0.99)	0.03	0.99 (0.98–1.00)	0.52	0.98 (0.97–0.99)	0.003
FVC, %	0.98 (0.97–0.99)	0.02	0.99 (0.98–1.00)	0.43	0.99 (0.97–0.99)	0.005
TLC, %	0.98 (0.96–0.99)	0.02	0.99 (0.98–1.01)	0.5	0.98 (0.96–1.00)	0.01
DLCO, %	0.98 (0.97–0.99)	0.007	0.99 (0.98–1.00)	0.06	0.96 (0.94–0.97)	< 0.0001
KCO, %	0.98 (0.97–1.01)	0.19	0.98 (0.97–1.00)	0.1	0.94 (0.92–0.97)	< 0.0001
ACA	0.77 (0.4–1.5)	0.44	1.17 (0.66–2.08)	0.6	1.94 (1.06–3.53)	0.03
ATA	1.3 (0.86–2.01)	0.2	1.03 (0.68–1.56)	0.9	0.62 (0.36–1.06)	0.08
ESR	1.01 (0.99–1.02)	0.2	1 (0.99–1.02)	0.7	1.02 (1.01–1.03)	0.001
CPI	1.02 (1.00–1.03)	0.008	1.01 (1.0–1.03)	0.12	1.04 (1.03–1.06)	< 0.0001

dcSSc: diffuse cutaneous SSc; PH: presence of pulmonary hypertension; CPI: composite physiologic index 18; ACA: anticentromere antibodies; ATA: antitopoisomerase antibodies; FVC: forced vital capacity; FEV1: forced expiratory volume 1 second; IL: interleukin; DTPA:^99mTc-technetium-labeled diethylene-triamine-pentacetate clearance; KCO: carbon monoxide transfer coefficient corrected for lung volume; ESR: erythrocyte sedimentation rate.