Measurement values.
| Measurement | Value | Uncertainty | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment effectiveness: ACR20 response | OR | CODA samples (95% credible interval) | |
| Monotherapy | 1.00 | — | Mixed treatment |
| Parallel combination | 1.72 | 1.11–2.51 | comparison |
| Step-up combination | 1.55 | 0.46–2.51 | |
| Step-down combination | 3.25 | 0.84–8.87 | |
| Intensive step-up combination | 13.02 | 1.35–50.01 | |
| Steroid plus monotherapy | 1.23 | 0.47–2.53 | |
| Treatment effectiveness: ACR50 response | OR | CODA samples (95% credible interval) | |
| Monotherapy | 1.00 | — | Mixed treatment |
| Parallel combination | 2.50 | 1.14–4.80 | comparison |
| Step-up combination | 1.39 | 0.16–5.30 | |
| Step-down combination | 3.34 | 0.59–10.20 | |
| Intensive step-up combination | 25.57 | 0.55–105.40 | |
| Steroid plus monotherapy | 1.72 | 0.27–5.68 | |
| Treatment withdrawal | 6 month probability | Beta distribution (n, p) | |
| Monotherapy | 0.095 | 66,696 | Clinical trials |
| Parallel combination | 0.060 | 4,176 | |
| Step-up combination | 0.020 | 51,610 | |
| Step-down combination | 0.026 | 4,55 | |
| Intensive step-up combination | 0.049 | 5,173 | |
| Steroid plus monotherapy | 0.074 | 20,262 | |
| HAQ | |||
| ACR20 response: HAQ improvement | 37.8% | — | (16) |
| ACR50 response: HAQ improvement | 85.3% | — | |
| Annual HAQ progression rate | 0.0418 | — | (13) |
| Resource use | HAQ group | ||
| Annual cost of NHS resources (hospital days, hospital visits, and joint replacement) | 0 = £120.23 0–1 = £261.78 1–2 = £579.94 2–3 = £1,673.41 | — | (35) Costed with 2007 PSSRU |
| 6-month strategy costs | |||
| Monotherapy | £251.40 | — | BNF56 (September 2008) |
| Parallel combination | £263.56 | — | |
| Step-up combination | £266.93 | — | |
| Step-down combination | £269.29 | — | |
| Intensive step-up combination | £766.35 | — | |
| Steroid plus monotherapy | £269.98 | — | |
| Patient population characteristics | Value | Normal distribution (SD) | |
| Age, yrs | 54.8 | 13.6 | (3) |
| Women, % | 66.6 | — | |
| Disease duration, yrs | 0.68 | 0.508 | |
| Baseline HAQ | 1.11 | 0.7 | |
| Biologics | |||
| Lifetime cost of biologic therapy | £57,919 | — | (13) |
| Lifetime QALY of biologic therapy | 5.1514 | — |
ACR: American College of Rheumatology; CODA: Convergence Diagnostic and Output Analysis software; HAQ: Health Assessment Questionnaire; NHS: National Health Service (UK); PSSRU: Personal Social Services Research Unit; BNF: British National Formulary; QALY: quality-adjusted life-years.