Abstract
Objective To determine whether a multibiomarker disease activity (MBDA) score predicts radiographic damage progression in the subsequent year in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis.
Methods There were 180 serum samples available in the BeSt study (trial numbers NTR262, NTR 265): 91 at baseline (84 with radiographs available) and 89 at 1-year followup (81 with radiographs available). Radiographs were assessed using the Sharp/van der Heijde Score (SvdH). Twelve serum biomarkers were measured to determine MBDA scores using a validated algorithm. Receiver-operating curves and Poisson regression analyses were performed, with Disease Activity Score (DAS) and MBDA score as independent variables, and radiographic progression as dependent variable.
Results At baseline, MBDA scores discriminated more between patients who developed radiographic progression (increase in SvdH ≥ 5 points) and patients who did not [area under the curve (AUC) 0.767, 95% CI 0.639–0.896] than did DAS (AUC 0.521, 95% CI 0.358–0.684). At 1 year, MBDA score had an AUC of 0.691 (95% CI 0.453–0.929) and DAS had an AUC of 0.649 (95% CI 0.417–0.880). Adjusted for anticitrullinated protein antibody status and DAS, higher MBDA scores were associated with an increased risk for SvdH progression [relative risk (RR) 1.039, 95% CI 1.018–1.059 for baseline MBDA score; 1.037, 95% CI 1.009–1.065 for Year 1 MBDA score]. Categorized high MBDA scores were also correlated with SvdH progression (RR for high MBDA score at baseline 3.7; low or moderate MBDA score as reference). At 1 year, high MBDA score gave a RR of 4.6 compared to low MBDA score.
Conclusion MBDA scores predict radiographic damage progression at baseline and during disease course.
