Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1.
The projected annual use of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures in the United States from 2015 to 2040. The X-axis shows years and the Y-axis shows the number of annual procedures for primary THA (blue) or primary TKA (orange). The shaded area (THA, blue; TKA, orange) represents the 95% prediction interval for respective projections at each timepoint. The CI are much wider after 2030. If the current rate of increase slows down, the lower 95% prediction interval value of the projection may be more accurate. If the current rate of increase in arthroplasty accelerates, the upper 95% prediction interval value might be more accurate.
- Figure 2.
Sensitivity analyses for primary THA and primary TKA projections in the United States from 2015 to 2040 using binomial regression. The X-axis shows years and the Y-axis shows the number of annual procedures. THA: total hip arthroplasty; TKA: primary total knee arthroplasty.
- Figure 3.
The projected annual use of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) procedures in the United States from 2020 to 2040 by sex (A) and age (B). The bars indicate the number of primary THA procedures for each subgroup for each year.
- Figure 4.
The projected annual use of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures in the United States from 2020 to 2040 by sex (A) and age (B). The bars indicate the number of primary THA procedures for each subgroup for each year.
Tables
- Table 1.
Summary of estimates from the key studies of TKA and THA projections in the United States in comparison with the current study.
Studies 2020 Projections (95% prediction interval) 2030 Projections (95% prediction interval) 2040 Projections (95% prediction interval) Data Used: Reference for % Increase Annual TKA projections, in thousands; % increase Inacio 201711 Logistic: 882 (188, 934); 20 Logistic: 1163 (211, 1336); 13 Logistic: 1383 (234, 1774); 8 1993–2012 NIS (Ref: the last period 5 yrs prior) Poisson: 1071 (951, 1232); 35* Poisson: 1950 (1695, 2400); 35* Poisson: 3479 (2905, 4568); 33* Bashinskaya 201212 Linear: 1783 Linear: 3008 Linear: 3657 1993–2009 NIS (Ref 2009: 680,839) Kurtz 200717 Poisson: 1520 (1362, 1700) Poisson: 3481 (2948, 4136); 673 — 1990–2003 NIS (Ref 2003: 402,100) Kurtz 20145 Linear: 1375 (1193, 1558) — — 1990–2010 NIS (Ref 2009: 619,000) Current study 2018 Polynomial/Poisson: 1065 (937, 1211); 56 Polynomial/Poisson: 1921 (1530, 2410); 182 Polynomial/Poisson: 3416 (2459, 4745); 401 2000–2014 NIS (Ref 2014: 680,886) Negative binomial: 1314 (960, 1800); 93 Negative binomial: 3041 (1839, 5029); 347 Negative binomial: 6594 (3279, 13,262); 868 Annual THA projections, in thousands; % increase Inacio 201711 — — — — Bashinskaya 201212 Linear: 887 Linear: 1385 Linear: 1649 1993–2009 NIS (Ref: the last period 5 yrs prior) Kurtz 200717 Poisson: 384 (339, 435); 84 Poisson: 572 (481, 681); 174 — 1990–2003 NIS (Ref 2003: 202,500) Kurtz 20145 Linear: 512 (413, 611) — — 1990–2010 NIS (Ref 2009: 284,000) Current study 2018 Polynomial/Poisson: 498 (475, 523); 34 Polynomial/Poisson: 850 (781, 925); 129 Polynomial/Poisson: 1429 (1265, 1615); 284 2000–2014 NIS (Ref 2014: 371,605) Negative binomial: 513 (362, 728); 38 Negative binomial: 1032 (590, 1806); 178 Negative binomial: 2004 (922, 4356); 439 ↵* Increase compared to the last period 5 years prior. “—” means data not provided. TKA: total knee arthroplasty; THA: total hip arthroplasty; NIS: US National Inpatient Sample.
