Antiphospholipid antibodies predict imminent vascular events independently from other risk factors in a prospective cohort

Thromb Haemost. 2009 Jan;101(1):100-7.

Abstract

Antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) are associated with vascular events, but the magnitude of this risk, alone, or in combination with other atherogenic and thrombophilic risk factors, remains unclear. A prospective cohort of 415 persons was studied for arterial and venous events (AE and VE) over a median time of 7.4 years. aPL and coagulation abnormalities were measured upon beginning of the study and annually for the first four years. Within the cohort, a nested case-control study was conducted to investigate the role of endothelial and inflammatory markers in predicting new vascular events. Forty-five individuals had new vascular events: 18 occurred during the first year of follow-up. The proportion of event-free survivors at eight years was 90% (95%CI = 87%, 94%) for aPL-negative and 72% (60%, 85%) for aPL-positive individuals, respectively. Predictors for new AE were previous AE (HR = 5.7 [2.7, 12.0]), diabetes (5.6 [2.4, 13.2]), aPL positivity (2.6 ([1.2, 5.9]), and age (1.04 [1.01, 1.07]). New VE were predicted by previous VE (6.1 [1.9, 19.9]), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I (abeta2GPI) positivity (5.8 [1.4, 24.1]), activated protein C resistance (APCR) (4.1 [1.1, 15.1]), and gender (3.7 [1.1, 12.9]). In the nested case-control study, similar predictors were observed for AE, while abnormal APCR (OR = 5.5 [1.1, 26.6]) and elevated von Willebrand factor (vWF) (OR = 5.0 [1.2, 19.8]) best predicted VE. We demonstrate that aPL independently predict new vascular events and discriminate between individuals with and without events in the first two years of follow-up, indicating that aPL are associated with a short-term risk of developing new and recurrent vascular events.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Antibodies, Antiphospholipid / blood*
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Blood Coagulation*
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Endothelium, Vascular / metabolism
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Inflammation Mediators / blood
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Odds Ratio
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prospective Studies
  • Recurrence
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Vascular Diseases / blood
  • Vascular Diseases / immunology*
  • Vascular Diseases / mortality

Substances

  • Antibodies, Antiphospholipid
  • Biomarkers
  • Inflammation Mediators

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