Table 4.

Transition matrices: probabilities of transitioning between different categories of disease activity over 2 consecutive visits, based on SLEDAI-2K score^*.

From cohort entry to 1 year later, n = 1200
	Year 1
Cohort entry	SLEDAI Group	Low	Moderate	Moderately High	Very High
	Low	70.9	15.6	9.0	4.5
	Moderate	36.3	32.3	20.2	11.3
	Moderately high	30.7	24.1	32.9	12.2
	Very high	19.4	15.3	29.5	35.9

From Year 1 to Year 2 of followup, n = 425
	Year 2
Year 1	SLEDAI Group	Low	Moderate	Moderately High	Very High
	Low	67.3	14.1	12.7	5.9
	Moderate	53.9	23.0	13.0	10.0
	Moderately high	35.1	17.7	35.1	12.1
	Very high	22.7	22.7	30.6	24.1

From Year 2 to Year 3 of followup, n = 220
	Year 3
Year 2	SLEDAI Group	Low	Moderate	Moderately High	Very High
	Low	58.2	16.0	19.3	6.5
	Moderate	38.3	36.1	14.9	10.7
	Moderately high	33.3	15.7	39.2	11.8
	Very high	17.3	13.9	34.4	34.4

From Year 3 to Year 4 of followup, n = 154
	Year 4
Year 3	SLEDAI Group	Low	Moderate	Moderately High	Very High
	Low	52.7	33.3	12.3	1.7
	Moderate	45.7	17.1	31.5	5.8
	Moderately high	18.5	23.8	42.1	15.7
	Very high	12.5	16.7	33.3	37.5

From Year 4 to Year 5 of followup, n = 106
	Year 5
Year 4	SLEDAI Group	Low	Moderate	Moderately High	Very High
	Low	52.7	27.8	16.7	2.7
	Moderate	36.0	44.0	11.9	8.0
	Moderately high	22.2	19.5	47.2	11.2
	Very high	11.2	11.2	22.2	55.5

↵* Decreasing patient followup data available each year. SLEDAI: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index.