Table 5.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of baseline to 3 months change in clinical and laboratory assessments predicting response after 3 and 12 months of etanercept treatment in male patients with AS (n = 68).

	AUC (95% CI)	p^*	Optimal Cutoff	Sensitivity, %	Specificity, %
ASAS20 response after 3 months
Δ0–3 MMP-3	0.752 (0.618–0.886)	—	0.0	72	75
Δ0–3 ESR	0.708 (0.544–0.872)	0.556	6.5	77	64
Δ0–3 CRP	0.609 (0.436–0.781)	0.120	6.5	69	57
Δ0–3 BASDAI	0.953 (0.898–1.000)	0.000	1.9	90	86
Δ0–3 ASDAS	0.864 (0.744–0.984)	0.107	1.3	89	79
ASAS40 response after 3 months
Δ0–3 MMP-3	0.610 (0.458–0.762)	—	0.1	76	55
Δ0–3 ESR	0.679 (0.546–0.811)	0.387	6.5	88	53
Δ0–3 CRP	0.584 (0.442–0.726)	0.761	10.5	64	67
Δ0–3 BASDAI	0.831 (0.731–0.932)	0.001	2.5	91	67
Δ0–3 ASDAS	0.777 (0.663–0.891)	0.007	1.3	97	52
ASAS20 response after 12 months
Δ0–3 MMP-3	0.744 (0.607–0.882)	—	0.2	73	72
Δ0–3 ESR	0.779 (0.659–0.899)	0.662	6.5	88	70
Δ0–3 CRP	0.616 (0.472–0.761)	0.161	9.5	63	74
Δ0–3 BASDAI	0.816 (0.699–0.934)	0.395	2.6	81	83
Δ0–3 ASDAS	0.810 (0.694–0.926)	0.356	1.3	91	61
ASAS40 response after 12 months
Δ0–3 MMP-3	0.670 (0.528–0.813)	—	0.5	74	61
Δ0–3 ESR	0.683 (0.552–0.814)	0.882	6.5	90	51
Δ0–3 CRP	0.578 (0.437–0.719)	0.268	9.5	63	61
Δ0–3 BASDAI	0.790 (0.680–0.900)	0.137	2.7	83	69
Δ0–3 ASDAS	0.739 (0.618–0.860)	0.325	1.9	70	72

↵* Compared to AUC of Δ0–3 MMP-3. AUC: area under the curve. See Table 1 for other definitions.