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Research ArticleArticle

Projected Worldwide Disease Burden from Giant Cell Arteritis by 2050

Elisabeth De Smit, Andrew J. Palmer and Alex W. Hewitt
The Journal of Rheumatology January 2015, 42 (1) 119-125; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3899/jrheum.140318
Elisabeth De Smit
From the Centre for Eye Research Australia (CERA), The University of Melbourne, Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital, East Melbourne; School of Medicine, Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Hobart; Lions Eye Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia.
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  • For correspondence: elisabethd@student.unimelb.edu.au
Andrew J. Palmer
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Alex W. Hewitt
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Abstract

Objective. To estimate and project the number of people affected worldwide by giant cell arteritis (GCA) by 2050. Modeling the number of people visually impaired as a result of this disease will help establish the projected morbidity and resource burden.

Methods. A systematic literature review up to December 2013 was conducted using PubMed and ISI Web of Science. Studies reporting an incidence rate for GCA were used to model disease incident cases at regional and national levels. United Nations Population Prospect data were used for population projections. Morbidity burden was established through rates of visual impairment. The associated financial implications were calculated for the United States.

Results. The number of incident cases of GCA will increase secondary to an aging population. By 2050, more than 3 million people will have been diagnosed with GCA in Europe, North America, and Oceania. About 500,000 people will be visually impaired. By 2050, in the United States alone, the estimated cost from visual impairment due to GCA will exceed US$76 billion. Inpatient care for patients with active GCA will total about US$1 billion. Management of steroid-related adverse events will increase costs further, with steroid-induced fractures estimated to total US$6 billion by 2050.

Conclusion. Projecting disease burden for GCA on a global scale allows for optimization of healthcare planning and prioritization of research domains. Additional population-based studies are required to more accurately project worldwide disease burden. Our work highlights the future global disease burden of GCA, and illustrates the associated financial implications.

Key Indexing Terms:
  • GIANT CELL ARTERITIS
  • INCIDENCE
  • PREVALENCE
  • DISEASE BURDEN
  • BLINDNESS
  • COSTS

Footnotes

  • Supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). CERA receives Operational Infrastructure Support from the Victorian Government. E. De Smit is supported by an NHMRC postgraduate scholarship and A.W. Hewitt is supported by an NHMRC Peter Doherty Fellowship.

  • Accepted for publication September 3, 2014.
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The Journal of Rheumatology
Vol. 42, Issue 1
1 Jan 2015
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Projected Worldwide Disease Burden from Giant Cell Arteritis by 2050
Elisabeth De Smit, Andrew J. Palmer, Alex W. Hewitt
The Journal of Rheumatology Jan 2015, 42 (1) 119-125; DOI: 10.3899/jrheum.140318

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Projected Worldwide Disease Burden from Giant Cell Arteritis by 2050
Elisabeth De Smit, Andrew J. Palmer, Alex W. Hewitt
The Journal of Rheumatology Jan 2015, 42 (1) 119-125; DOI: 10.3899/jrheum.140318
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Keywords

GIANT CELL ARTERITIS
INCIDENCE
PREVALENCE
DISEASE BURDEN
BLINDNESS
COSTS

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Keywords

  • GIANT CELL ARTERITIS
  • INCIDENCE
  • PREVALENCE
  • DISEASE BURDEN
  • BLINDNESS
  • COSTS

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